Risk Rankings
Predictive
Watchlist
Early Warning
Trend View
6-Year Reports
Validation
v2→v3
States
Forecast
Feed Status
Investigative Flags
Three Views
SNA Graph
Critical Risk
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Score ≥ 70 · Click to filter
Composite of 7 risk components exceeds 70. All major indicators — management, physical, financial, audit — near maximum.
High Risk
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Score 55–69 · Click to filter
Multiple risk components elevated. Typically Troubled-designated PHAs with poor physical or financial scores.
Elevated
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Score 40–54 · Click to filter
Two or more risk components flagged. May include low FASS scores, inspection failures, or audit findings.
Early Warning
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Rising EWMA trend · Click to filter
Financial trend rising ≥0.3 year-over-year or EWMA ≥4.0. Flags PHAs before they reach Troubled status.
Data Errors
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Requires review · Click to filter
FASS or PASS scores outside valid ranges. Data may be stale, misreported, or missing from HUD systems.
Ranked PHAs
Normalization Explorer
| # | Authority | Risk Score | Predictive | Tier | A | B | C | D | Flags |
|---|
PHA Deep Dive
Full Analysis
Select a PHA from the table to view detailed analysis
Risk Distribution by State
EWMA Score Trends — Top Risk PHAs
Normalization Explorer
Cross-PHA Investigative Flags
Data Feed Status
Divergent PHAs
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PHAs Crawled
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Total Scored
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Divergence Alerts — Scraped Risk Not Seen by HUD
| # | PHA Code | Authority Name | State | HUD Designation | View A HUD Official |
View B Scraped Operational |
Gap Divergence |
|---|
Troubled High Confidence
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Predictive ≥65
At-Risk
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Predictive 55–64
Watchlist
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Predictive 45–54
Ground Truth Match
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Currently troubled captured
Predictive Rankings — v3 Scoring (B+C+D+F+G weighted)
Export CSV
| # | Authority | Predictive | Descriptive | Predicted Status | Ground Truth | Trend |
|---|
Watchlist — Predictive Score ≥45
Export CSV
| # | Authority | Predictive | Status | Ground Truth | Early Warning |
|---|
Congressional Troubled PHA Reports — 6-Year Analysis (FY2020–FY2025)
PHAs Missed by PRISM v2 (Now Caught by v3)
Model Validation — PRISM v3 vs Congressional Ground Truth
v2 → v3 Model Comparison
Early Warning Active
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Rising EWMA trend
High Risk + Warning
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Critical/High with rising trend
Predictive ≥55 + Warning
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At-Risk with worsening trend
Intervention Window
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Pre-troubled, actionable
Early Warning PHAs — Rising EWMA Trend Detected
Export CSV
| # | Authority | Descriptive | Predictive | Tier | Predicted Status | Trend | Ground Truth |
|---|
Optimistic (FY2031)
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Best case scenario
Baseline (FY2031)
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Expected trajectory
Adverse (FY2031)
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Stress case estimate
5-Year Troubled PHA Forecast — FY2026 to FY2031
Pipeline Control
Pipeline controls load from Replit scheduler.